Determination Letter — JOSH-2026-CLAREMONT-HILLS-TERR-37_8760-n122

2.3

Max ΔT (min)

6.00

Threshold (min)

MINISTERIAL W/
STANDARD CONDITIONS

Controlling FindingAll serving paths are within the ΔT threshold. Most constrained path: Ridge Road at 2.28 min (38% of the 6.00-min limit, 3.72 min remaining).

Analysis

Applicability Threshold

Minimum 15 dwelling units — integer comparison, no discretion

IN SCOPE — CONDITIONS APPLY

25 dwelling units proposed ≥ 15-unit threshold. Project size threshold: 15 dwelling units (ITE Trip Generation de minimis; SB 330, Gov. Code §65913.4). Since this project meets the applicability threshold, the evacuation clearance analysis (Criteria B and C) applies. If all criteria are met, pre-adopted standard conditions apply automatically — see Required Next Steps.

Site Parameters

CAL FIRE FHSZ classification — sets road capacity degradation factor and ΔT threshold for clearance analysis

NON-FHSZ

Project site is not within a designated fire hazard severity zone (CAL FIRE HAZ_CLASS: 0, non_fhsz). No road capacity degradation applied (factor = 1.00×). Standard 120-min safe egress window applies.
Mobilization rate: 0.90 (NFPA 1660 / 1616 community mass-evacuation design basis, constant).

Evacuation Clearance Analysis

Route identification (0.5 mi radius) + per-path ΔT test — this is the operative determination step

WITHIN THRESHOLD

91 serving route segments within 0.5 mi (OSM evacuation route network).

ΔT threshold: 120 min safe egress window (NIST TN 2135, Non-FHSZ) × 5% max project share = 6.00 min

About the route list. The routes listed below are paths evacuees may self-select during an evacuation (User Equilibrium). The determination uses the controlling (worst-case) route because some evacuees will take it — slower routes do not "fix" faster ones. See §3.6 and §8.6 of the Legal Defensibility Memo for the full methodology.

13 routes evaluated; controlling ΔT = 2.28 min on Ridge Road.

Project vehicles: 43 (units × 1.9 vpu × 0.90 mobilization; NFPA 1660 / 1616 community mass-evacuation design basis, Census ACS B25044 zero-vehicle adjustment). Effective capacity = HCM 2022 raw × 1.00 composite hazard-degradation factor. Routes sorted fastest exit first (User Equilibrium ordering).

Path	Bottleneck Segment	FHSZ Zone	Eff. Cap (vph)	Exit (min)	ΔT (min)	Threshold	Margin
proj_53148316_243670952 CONTROLLING	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_2644106915	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_2644106917	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_52982359	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_35833153	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_86276581	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_52982363	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_53013480	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_52995575	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_53011243	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_1635557750	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_1541561262	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72
proj_53148316_1895821107	Ridge Road Two-lane · 25 mph · 1 ln → HCM 1,125 × 1.00 = 1,125 vph	Non-FHSZ	1,125	—	2.28	6.00	−3.72

SB 79 Transit Proximity

Transit stop within 0.5 mi — does not affect this determination

INFORMATIONAL

Determination

DETERMINATION →

Project meets the 15-unit applicability threshold and has 13 serving path(s). Max ΔT 2.3 min within threshold (6.00 min). Not in FHSZ (hazard_zone=non_fhsz) — no road degradation. Behavioral mobilization: 0.90 (FHWA, constant). Ministerial approval with standard conditions applied automatically. Legal basis: AB 747 (California Government Code §65302.15) — General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition) — effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code) — 0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.) — safe egress windows by hazard zone.

Wildland Evacuation Analysis: MINISTERIAL WITH STANDARD CONDITIONS

SB 79 Transit Proximity (Informational): NOT APPLICABLE

Required Next Steps

This project is approved ministerially. The following pre-adopted, objective conditions apply automatically by operation of law and local ordinance. No discretionary review or public hearing is required. (Gov. Code §65589.4)

Evacuation infrastructure impact fee — AB 1600 (Gov. Code §66000 et seq.). If the city has adopted an evacuation infrastructure impact fee schedule pursuant to the Mitigation Fee Act (AB 1600), the applicable fee is due at building permit issuance.
Emergency vehicle access — local fire code (IFC §503). The project shall maintain minimum fire apparatus access road width, vertical clearance, and turning radii as required by the adopted local fire code throughout construction and operation.

Legal Authority

Every numerical value in this determination is derived mechanically from the authorities below. No engineering judgment was exercised. The same methodology is applied uniformly to all projects under AB 747.

#	Authority	Published / Adopted	Parameter	Value Applied
1	AB 747, Gov. Code §65302.15	2021 Ch. 394	Analysis mandate	—
2	CAL FIRE OSFM FHSZ (state-adopted SRA map)	Current SRA designation	Hazard zone	`non_fhsz` — Not in FHSZ
3	NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al., Camp Fire)	2021	Safe egress window (Non-FHSZ)	120 min
4	Standard engineering significance criterion	—	Maximum project share of egress window	5%
→	Derived from ③ × ④		ΔT threshold for this location	120 × 0.05 = 6.00 min
5	HCM 2022 Exhibit 12-7 (TRB 7th Ed.)	TRB 2022	Road HCM base capacity (controlling: Ridge Road Two-lane, 25 mph, 1 lanes)	1,125 vph
6	Composite hazard-degradation factor — anchored against HCM 2022 Ch. 11 weather CAF framework + NIST TN 2135 Camp Fire empirical observations; independent traffic-engineering review pending (FSC May 2026)	TRB 2022 / NIST 2021 / FSC 2026	Hazard capacity degradation (Non-FHSZ)	1.00×
→	Derived from ⑤ × ⑥		Effective bottleneck capacity	1,125 vph
7	NFPA 1660 Standard for Emergency, Continuity, and Crisis Management (2024 ed.; consolidates NFPA 1616 Mass Evacuation, Sheltering, and Re-entry Programs, 2020 ed.)	NFPA 2024 / 2020	Community mass-evacuation mobilization rate (design basis)	0.90 (constant)
8	U.S. Census ACS B25044	2020 5-yr	Zero-vehicle household adjustment (~10%)	Incorporated in NFPA 1660 / 1616 mobilization constant
→	Formula result		ΔT (marginal evacuation clearance time)	2.28 min vs. 6.00-min limit

Core Formula

ΔT = (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity_vph) × 60 + egress_penalty
project_vehicles = 25 units × 1.9 vpu × 0.90 (NFPA 1660 / 1616 mobilization constant) = 43 vph
egress_penalty = 0 (building < 4 stories)
Flagged when ΔT > 6.00 min (threshold = 120 min × 5%)

This determination applies the above authorities mechanically. No engineering judgment was exercised. The same methodology is applied uniformly to all projects under AB 747.

▶ determination_37_8760_n122_2600_25u.txt

======================================================================
FIRE EVACUATION CAPACITY ANALYSIS  -  PROJECT DETERMINATION
JOSH v4.0 (dT Standard  -  Constant Mobilization, NFPA 101)
======================================================================
Date:           2026-05-27T02:57:07.591735
Project:        Claremont Hills Terrace
Address:        Ridge Road & Claremont Ave, Berkeley Hills
APN:            Not provided
Location:       37.876, -122.26
Dwelling Units: 25
Stories:        3

ALGORITHM
----------------------------------------
  Universal 5-Step Evacuation Capacity Algorithm v4.0 (dT Standard  -  constant mobilization)
  Each scenario applies: (1) applicability check, (2) scale gate, (3) route identification (EvacuationPath objects with bottleneck tracking), (4) demand calculation (behavioral_mobilization 0.90 x vpu x units  -  FHWA constant), (5) dT test (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity x 60 + egress). FHSZ affects road capacity degradation only  -  not mobilization. Most restrictive tier across all applicable scenarios is the final determination.
  Reference: See legal.md for full legal basis and defense reference.

======================================================================
SCENARIO: WILDLAND_AB747
  Legal Basis: AB 747 (California Government Code Sec.65302.15)  -  General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition)  -  effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code)  -  0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.)  -  safe egress windows by hazard zone
  Result: MINISTERIAL WITH STANDARD CONDITIONS  |  Triggered: NO
======================================================================

  STEP 1  -  APPLICABILITY CHECK (Standard 3: FHSZ Modifier)
  --------------------------------------
  Method: Always applicable; site FHSZ check via GIS point-in-polygon
  Result: APPLICABLE
  Note: Not in FHSZ (hazard_zone=non_fhsz)  -  no road degradation. Behavioral mobilization 0.90 (FHWA, constant).
  Standard 3 (FHSZ): Not in FHSZ [HAZ_CLASS=0]  hazard_zone=non_fhsz  (not in FHSZ)
  Note: Point not within any FHSZ polygon; nearest polygon 842 m away (>50 m threshold).
  Behavioral Mobilization: 0.90 (FHWA Emergency Transportation Operations  -  mandatory evacuation compliance rate)

  STEP 2  -  SCALE GATE (Standard 1)
  --------------------------------------
  25 >= 15 -> TRIGGERED
  (25 units vs. 15 threshold)

  STEP 3  -  ROUTE IDENTIFICATION (Standard 2)
  --------------------------------------
  Method: Project-origin Dijkstra (v4.0, travel-time weight)  -  fastest path from project site to each regional-network exit node (motorway/trunk/primary at city boundary); weight=length/speed_limit (seconds) per speed_defaults config; 81 nodes within 0.5 mi network zone; respects road barriers (I-5, rail, etc.)
  Radius: 0.5 miles (804.7 m)
  Serving route segments found: 91
  Serving EvacuationPaths identified: 13
    - Eastshore Freeway: eff_cap=11250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.500 (informational)
    - 6321559: eff_cap=2250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.500 (informational)
    - 9577895: eff_cap=2250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.764 (informational)
    - 510151009: eff_cap=2250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.764 (informational)
    - 6322298: eff_cap=2250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.500 (informational)
    - Ridge Road: eff_cap=1125 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.424 (informational)
    - University Avenue: eff_cap=5700 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.400 (informational)
    - Ashby Avenue: eff_cap=7600 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=3.095 (informational)
    - Shattuck Avenue: eff_cap=7600 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.400 (informational)
    - San Pablo Avenue: eff_cap=3800 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.280 (informational)
    - Le Conte Avenue: eff_cap=1125 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.250 (informational)
    - Scenic Avenue: eff_cap=1125 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=1.552 (informational)
    - Adeline Street: eff_cap=3800 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.719 (informational)
    - 6320410: eff_cap=2250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=4.388 (informational)
    - Hearst Avenue: eff_cap=1125 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.250 (informational)

  STEP 4  -  DEMAND CALCULATION
  --------------------------------------
  Formula: 25 x 1.9 x 0.90
  Hazard Zone: non_fhsz
  Behavioral Mobilization: 0.90 (FHWA Emergency Transportation Operations, constant)
  Project vehicles (peak hour): 42.8 vph
  Source (vehicles/unit): U.S. Census ACS B25044
  Source (mobilization): FHWA Emergency Transportation Operations  -  mandatory evacuation compliance rate for residential areas (0.90). vehicles_per_unit already reflects zero-vehicle households via ACS B25044 all-household average.

  STEP 5  -  dT TEST (Standard 4)
  --------------------------------------
  Method: dT = (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity) x 60 + egress
  Hazard Zone: non_fhsz
  Behavioral Mobilization: 0.90 (FHWA Emergency Transportation Operations, constant)
  Project Vehicles: 42.8 vph
  Egress Penalty: 0.0 min (NFPA 101/IBC; applies to buildings >= 4 stories)
  Safe Egress Window: 120 min (non_fhsz, NIST TN 2135)
  Max Project Share:  5%
  dT Threshold:       6.00 min (120 min window x 5%, NIST TN 2135)
  Paths Evaluated: 13
  Max dT: 2.28 min
  Triggered: NO

  Per-Path Results (all evaluated paths  -  no deduplication):
    Path proj_53148316_243670952  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  35 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_2644106915  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  50 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_2644106917  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  49 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_52982359  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  38 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_35833153  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  33 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_86276581  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  34 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_52982363  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  37 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_53013480  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  36 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_52995575  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  36 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_53011243  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  37 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_1635557750  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  35 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_1541561262  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  34 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))

    Path proj_53148316_1895821107  |  origin BG: project_origin  |  35 segments
    Bottleneck: Ridge Road (Euclid Avenue to Scenic Avenue), 0.1 mi W [within threshold]
      Road: Two-lane highway  |  Speed: 25 mph  |  Lanes: 1  |  HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz)
      HCM cap: 1125 vph  x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz)  = eff cap 1125 vph
      dT = (42.8 vph / 1125 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 2.28 min  (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%))


  -> Scenario Tier: MINISTERIAL WITH STANDARD CONDITIONS
  Reason: Project meets the 15-unit applicability threshold and has 13 serving path(s). Max dT 2.3 min within threshold (6.00 min). Not in FHSZ (hazard_zone=non_fhsz)  -  no road degradation. Behavioral mobilization: 0.90 (FHWA, constant). Ministerial approval with standard conditions applied automatically. Legal basis: AB 747 (California Government Code Sec.65302.15)  -  General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition)  -  effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code)  -  0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.)  -  safe egress windows by hazard zone.

======================================================================
SCENARIO: SB79_TRANSIT
  Legal Basis: SB 79 (2025)  -  objective health and safety standard carve-out for by-right projects (transit proximity context); California Public Utilities Code Sec.21155 (Tier 1/2 transit)
  Result: NOT_APPLICABLE  |  Triggered: NO
======================================================================
  NOT APPLICABLE: SB 79: project is not within 0.5 miles of Tier 1/2 transit. Informational only  -  no tier impact.
  SB 79 Transit Proximity: outside transit buffer

======================================================================
FINAL DETERMINATION
======================================================================
  RESULT: MINISTERIAL WITH STANDARD CONDITIONS

  Project meets the 15-unit applicability threshold and has 13 serving path(s). Max dT 2.3 min within threshold (6.00 min). Not in FHSZ (hazard_zone=non_fhsz)  -  no road degradation. Behavioral mobilization: 0.90 (FHWA, constant). Ministerial approval with standard conditions applied automatically. Legal basis: AB 747 (California Government Code Sec.65302.15)  -  General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition)  -  effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code)  -  0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.)  -  safe egress windows by hazard zone.

  PARAMETERS APPLIED
  --------------------------------------
  Hazard Zone:        non_fhsz
  Behavioral Mobilization: 0.90 (FHWA Emergency Transportation Operations  -  mandatory evacuation compliance rate)
  Vehicles per Unit:  1.9 (U.S. Census ACS B25044, CA statewide all-HH average)
  Egress Penalty:     0.0 min (NFPA 101/IBC  -  3 stories)
  Safe Egress Window: 120 min (non_fhsz, per NIST TN 2135)
  Max Project Share:  5%
  dT Threshold:       6.00 min (120 x 5%)
  Max dT (project):   2.28 min

  Determination Tier:
    MINISTERIAL WITH STANDARD CONDITIONS

  The project meets the dwelling unit size threshold and all serving paths' dT
  are within the applicable threshold for the project's hazard zone.
  Approved ministerially. The following pre-adopted, objective conditions apply
  automatically: PRC Sec.4291 defensible space (if FHSZ); AB 1600 evacuation
  infrastructure impact fee (if fee schedule adopted); emergency vehicle access
  per local fire code; WUI building standards compliance (if FHSZ).

  Scenario Tier Summary:
    wildland_ab747: MINISTERIAL WITH STANDARD CONDITIONS
    sb79_transit: NOT_APPLICABLE

  Aggregation Logic: Most restrictive tier across all applicable scenarios wins.
  Tier Ranking: DISCRETIONARY(3) > MINISTERIAL WITH STANDARD CONDITIONS(2) > MINISTERIAL(1) > NOT_APPLICABLE(0)

  This determination is based solely on objective, verifiable criteria.
  No professional discretion was applied. All calculations are reproducible.
  See legal.md for full legal basis and defense reference.
======================================================================

Scope & Limitations

Civilian outbound capacity only. JOSH measures the ΔT contribution of civilian vehicles exiting the project on its serving evacuation routes. Concurrent emergency apparatus inbound access, required by CCR 1273.00 of the 2025 California Wildland-Urban Interface Code (CWUIC) adopted by the State Fire Marshal, requires separate analysis that is outside the scope of this determination.

Screening tool, not denial instrument. Consistent with CWUIC Appendix C §C101.6, ΔT provides an initial idealized order-of-magnitude clearance estimate intended to trigger further review under the Housing Accountability Act safety exception (Gov. Code §65589.5(j)(1)). It is not a substitute for a full community evacuation study and is not a standalone permit-denial instrument.

Methodology open items (independent traffic-engineering review by Fire Science Consulting LLC, May 2026): hazard-degradation factor empirical derivation; CWUIC road-geometry pre-check (CWUIC §§403.1, 403.3 — 20-ft / 26-ft minimums); shadow-evacuation and cumulative route capacity tracking; δt(egress) for low-rise (IBC 2024 Ch. 10 + SFPE Handbook Ch. 64).

Appeal Rights

This determination is the result of an objective, algorithmic analysis under adopted city standards. All inputs, calculations, and threshold comparisons are recorded in the attached audit trail and are fully reproducible.

An applicant who disagrees with this determination may appeal within 10 business days of the date of this letter to the City of Berkeley Planning Commission. The appeal must identify a specific factual error in the data inputs or threshold parameters. Engineering judgment is not a basis for appeal — these are objective standards.

For questions, contact the Planning Department. Reference the case number on this letter.