MINISTERIAL
APPROVAL ELIGIBLE
Controlling FindingSize threshold not met. The project (10 units) is below the 15-unit threshold. Evacuation clearance analysis is not required. Approval is ministerial.
Analysis
A
Applicability Threshold
Minimum 15 dwelling units — integer comparison, no discretion
BELOW THRESHOLD
10 dwelling units proposed < 15-unit threshold — project is below the ITE de minimis for measurable evacuation impact. Evacuation clearance analysis is not required.
B
Site Parameters
CAL FIRE FHSZ classification — sets road capacity degradation factor and ΔT threshold for clearance analysis
PENDING
C
Evacuation Clearance Analysis
Route identification (0.5 mi radius) + per-path ΔT test — this is the operative determination step
NOT REQUIRED
SB 79 Transit Proximity
Transit stop within 0.5 mi — does not affect this determination
NOT REQUIRED
Determination
DETERMINATION →
Project has 10 dwelling units, below the 15-unit threshold. Ministerial approval eligible.
Wildland Evacuation Analysis: MINISTERIAL
SB 79 Transit Proximity (Informational): NOT APPLICABLE
Required Next Steps
This project qualifies for ministerial approval under Government Code §65589.4 and the adopted AB 747 objective standards. No discretionary review is required. No public hearing is required.
- Submit building permit application to the Building & Safety Division per normal procedures.
- Standard fire and life safety plan check applies (Health & Safety Code §13108).
- No CEQA review is required for ministerial approvals (Pub. Resources Code §21080(b)(1)).
- Applicant shall not reduce the width or lane count of any identified evacuation route during construction.
Legal Authority
Every numerical value in this determination is derived mechanically from the authorities below. No engineering judgment was exercised. The same methodology is applied uniformly to all projects under AB 747.
| # | Authority | Published / Adopted | Parameter | Value Applied |
|---|
| 1 | AB 747, Gov. Code §65302.15 | 2021 Ch. 394 | Analysis mandate | — |
| 2 | CAL FIRE OSFM FHSZ (state-adopted SRA map) | Current SRA designation | Hazard zone | vhfhsz — Zone 3 (Very High) |
| 3 | NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al., Camp Fire) | 2021 | Safe egress window (Very High FHSZ) | 120 min |
| 4 | Standard engineering significance criterion | — | Maximum project share of egress window | 5% |
| → | Derived from ③ × ④ | ΔT threshold for this location | 120 × 0.05 = 6.00 min |
| 5 | HCM 2022 Exhibit 12-7 (TRB 7th Ed.) | TRB 2022 | Road HCM base capacity (controlling: —) | 0 vph |
| 6 | Composite hazard-degradation factor — anchored against HCM 2022 Ch. 11 weather CAF framework + NIST TN 2135 Camp Fire empirical observations; independent traffic-engineering review pending (FSC May 2026) | TRB 2022 / NIST 2021 / FSC 2026 | Hazard capacity degradation (Very High FHSZ) | 0.35× |
| → | Derived from ⑤ × ⑥ | Effective bottleneck capacity | 0 vph |
| 7 | NFPA 1660 Standard for Emergency, Continuity, and Crisis Management (2024 ed.; consolidates NFPA 1616 Mass Evacuation, Sheltering, and Re-entry Programs, 2020 ed.) | NFPA 2024 / 2020 | Community mass-evacuation mobilization rate (design basis) | 0.90 (constant) |
| 8 | U.S. Census ACS B25044 | 2020 5-yr | Zero-vehicle household adjustment (~10%) | Incorporated in NFPA 1660 / 1616 mobilization constant |
| → | Formula result | ΔT (marginal evacuation clearance time) | 0.00 min |
Core Formula
ΔT = (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity_vph) × 60 + egress_penalty
project_vehicles = 10 units × 1.9 vpu × 0.90 (NFPA 1660 / 1616 mobilization constant) = 0 vph
egress_penalty = 0 (building < 4 stories)
Flagged when ΔT > 6.00 min (threshold = 120 min × 5%)
This determination applies the above authorities mechanically. No engineering judgment was exercised. The same methodology is applied uniformly to all projects under AB 747.
▶ determination_37_8914_n122_2494_10u.txt
======================================================================
FIRE EVACUATION CAPACITY ANALYSIS - PROJECT DETERMINATION
JOSH v4.0 (dT Standard - Constant Mobilization, NFPA 101)
======================================================================
Date: 2026-05-27T02:57:02.395680
Project: Hills FHSZ Small Infill
Address: Tunnel Rd & Claremont Ave, Berkeley Hills (FHSZ Zone 3 area)
APN: Not provided
Location: 37.8914, -122.2494
Dwelling Units: 10
Stories: 2
ALGORITHM
----------------------------------------
Universal 5-Step Evacuation Capacity Algorithm v4.0 (dT Standard - constant mobilization)
Each scenario applies: (1) applicability check, (2) scale gate, (3) route identification (EvacuationPath objects with bottleneck tracking), (4) demand calculation (behavioral_mobilization 0.90 x vpu x units - FHWA constant), (5) dT test (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity x 60 + egress). FHSZ affects road capacity degradation only - not mobilization. Most restrictive tier across all applicable scenarios is the final determination.
Reference: See legal.md for full legal basis and defense reference.
======================================================================
SCENARIO: WILDLAND_AB747
Legal Basis: AB 747 (California Government Code Sec.65302.15) - General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition) - effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code) - 0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.) - safe egress windows by hazard zone
Result: MINISTERIAL | Triggered: NO
======================================================================
STEP 1 - APPLICABILITY CHECK (Standard 3: FHSZ Modifier)
--------------------------------------
Method: Always applicable; site FHSZ check via GIS point-in-polygon
Result: APPLICABLE
Note: FHSZ Zone 3 (vhfhsz) - road capacity degradation applied; mobilization unaffected. Behavioral mobilization 0.90 (FHWA, constant).
Standard 3 (FHSZ): Zone 3 (Very High) [HAZ_CLASS=3] hazard_zone=vhfhsz (IN FIRE ZONE)
Behavioral Mobilization: 0.90 (FHWA Emergency Transportation Operations - mandatory evacuation compliance rate)
STEP 2 - SCALE GATE (Standard 1)
--------------------------------------
10 >= 15 -> not triggered
(10 units vs. 15 threshold)
-> Determination: MINISTERIAL (below scale threshold)
Reason: Project has 10 dwelling units, below the 15-unit threshold. Ministerial approval eligible.
======================================================================
SCENARIO: SB79_TRANSIT
Legal Basis: SB 79 (2025) - objective health and safety standard carve-out for by-right projects (transit proximity context); California Public Utilities Code Sec.21155 (Tier 1/2 transit)
Result: NOT_APPLICABLE | Triggered: NO
======================================================================
NOT APPLICABLE: SB 79: project is not within 0.5 miles of Tier 1/2 transit. Informational only - no tier impact.
SB 79 Transit Proximity: outside transit buffer
======================================================================
FINAL DETERMINATION
======================================================================
RESULT: MINISTERIAL APPROVAL ELIGIBLE
Project has 10 dwelling units, below the 15-unit threshold. Ministerial approval eligible.
PARAMETERS APPLIED
--------------------------------------
Hazard Zone: vhfhsz
Behavioral Mobilization: 0.90 (FHWA Emergency Transportation Operations - mandatory evacuation compliance rate)
Vehicles per Unit: 1.9 (U.S. Census ACS B25044, CA statewide all-HH average)
Egress Penalty: 0.0 min (NFPA 101/IBC - 2 stories)
Safe Egress Window: min (vhfhsz, per NIST TN 2135)
Max Project Share: 5%
dT Threshold: min
Max dT (project): 0.00 min
Determination Tier:
MINISTERIAL APPROVAL ELIGIBLE
Project is below the dwelling unit size threshold (Standard 1 not met).
No evacuation capacity analysis is required.
Scenario Tier Summary:
wildland_ab747: MINISTERIAL
sb79_transit: NOT_APPLICABLE
Aggregation Logic: Most restrictive tier across all applicable scenarios wins.
Tier Ranking: DISCRETIONARY(3) > MINISTERIAL WITH STANDARD CONDITIONS(2) > MINISTERIAL(1) > NOT_APPLICABLE(0)
This determination is based solely on objective, verifiable criteria.
No professional discretion was applied. All calculations are reproducible.
See legal.md for full legal basis and defense reference.
======================================================================
Scope & Limitations
Civilian outbound capacity only. JOSH measures the ΔT contribution of civilian vehicles exiting the project on its serving evacuation routes. Concurrent emergency apparatus inbound access, required by CCR 1273.00 of the 2025 California Wildland-Urban Interface Code (CWUIC) adopted by the State Fire Marshal, requires separate analysis that is outside the scope of this determination.
Screening tool, not denial instrument. Consistent with CWUIC Appendix C §C101.6, ΔT provides an initial idealized order-of-magnitude clearance estimate intended to trigger further review under the Housing Accountability Act safety exception (Gov. Code §65589.5(j)(1)). It is not a substitute for a full community evacuation study and is not a standalone permit-denial instrument.
Methodology open items (independent traffic-engineering review by Fire Science Consulting LLC, May 2026): hazard-degradation factor empirical derivation; CWUIC road-geometry pre-check (CWUIC §§403.1, 403.3 — 20-ft / 26-ft minimums); shadow-evacuation and cumulative route capacity tracking; δt(egress) for low-rise (IBC 2024 Ch. 10 + SFPE Handbook Ch. 64).
Appeal Rights
This determination is the result of an objective, algorithmic analysis under adopted city standards. All inputs, calculations, and threshold comparisons are recorded in the attached audit trail and are fully reproducible.
An applicant who disagrees with this determination may appeal within 10 business days of the date of this letter to the City of Berkeley Planning Commission. The appeal must identify a specific factual error in the data inputs or threshold parameters. Engineering judgment is not a basis for appeal — these are objective standards.
For questions, contact the Planning Department. Reference the case number on this letter.