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FIRE EVACUATION CAPACITY ANALYSIS  -  PROJECT DETERMINATION
JOSH v3.4 (dT Standard  -  Constant Mobilization, NFPA 101)
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Date:           2026-04-03T04:11:34.993747
Project:        Ashby Small Infill
Address:        Ashby BART Station Area
APN:            Not provided
Location:       37.8528, -122.2699
Dwelling Units: 10
Stories:        2

ALGORITHM
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  Universal 5-Step Evacuation Capacity Algorithm v3.2 (dT Standard  -  constant mobilization)
  Each scenario applies: (1) applicability check, (2) scale gate, (3) route identification (EvacuationPath objects with bottleneck tracking), (4) demand calculation (mobilization rate 0.90 x vpu x units  -  NFPA 101 design basis), (5) dT test (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity x 60 + egress). FHSZ affects road capacity degradation only  -  not mobilization. Most restrictive tier across all applicable scenarios is the final determination.
  Reference: See legal.md for full legal basis and defense reference.

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SCENARIO: WILDLAND_AB747
  Legal Basis: AB 747 (California Government Code Sec.65302.15)  -  General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition)  -  effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code)  -  0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.)  -  safe egress windows by hazard zone
  Result: MINISTERIAL  |  Triggered: NO
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  STEP 1  -  APPLICABILITY CHECK (Standard 3: FHSZ Modifier)
  --------------------------------------
  Method: Always applicable; site FHSZ check via GIS point-in-polygon
  Result: APPLICABLE
  Note: Not in FHSZ (hazard_zone=non_fhsz)  -  no road degradation. Mobilization rate 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis, constant).
  Standard 3 (FHSZ): Not in FHSZ [HAZ_CLASS=0]  hazard_zone=non_fhsz  (not in FHSZ)
  Note: Point not within any FHSZ polygon; nearest polygon 2708 m away (>50 m threshold).
  Mobilization Rate: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis  -  constant; Census ACS B25044 zero-vehicle adjustment)

  STEP 2  -  SCALE GATE (Standard 1)
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  10 >= 15 -> not triggered
  (10 units vs. 15 threshold)
  -> Determination: MINISTERIAL (below scale threshold)
  Reason: Project has 10 dwelling units, below the 15-unit threshold. Ministerial approval eligible.

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SCENARIO: SB79_TRANSIT
  Legal Basis: SB 79 (2025)  -  objective health and safety standard carve-out for by-right projects (transit proximity context); California Public Utilities Code Sec.21155 (Tier 1/2 transit)
  Result: NOT_APPLICABLE  |  Triggered: NO
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  NOT APPLICABLE: SB 79: project is not within 0.5 miles of Tier 1/2 transit. Informational only  -  no tier impact.
  SB 79 Transit Proximity: outside transit buffer

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FINAL DETERMINATION
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  RESULT: MINISTERIAL APPROVAL ELIGIBLE

  Project has 10 dwelling units, below the 15-unit threshold. Ministerial approval eligible.

  PARAMETERS APPLIED
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  Hazard Zone:        non_fhsz
  Mobilization Rate:  0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis  -  constant; ~10% zero-vehicle HHs per Census ACS B25044)
  Vehicles per Unit:  2.5 (U.S. Census ACS B25044)
  Egress Penalty:     0.0 min (NFPA 101/IBC  -  2 stories)
  Safe Egress Window:  min (non_fhsz, per NIST TN 2135)
  Max Project Share:  5%
  dT Threshold:        min
  Max dT (project):   0.00 min

  Determination Tier:
    MINISTERIAL APPROVAL ELIGIBLE

  Project is below the dwelling unit size threshold (Standard 1 not met).
  No evacuation capacity analysis is required.

  Scenario Tier Summary:
    wildland_ab747: MINISTERIAL
    sb79_transit: NOT_APPLICABLE

  Aggregation Logic: Most restrictive tier across all applicable scenarios wins.
  Tier Ranking: DISCRETIONARY(3) > MINISTERIAL WITH STANDARD CONDITIONS(2) > MINISTERIAL(1) > NOT_APPLICABLE(0)

  This determination is based solely on objective, verifiable criteria.
  No professional discretion was applied. All calculations are reproducible.
  See legal.md for full legal basis and defense reference.
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