====================================================================== FIRE EVACUATION CAPACITY ANALYSIS - PROJECT DETERMINATION JOSH v3.4 (dT Standard - Constant Mobilization, NFPA 101) ====================================================================== Date: 2026-04-03T04:11:36.045491 Project: Downtown Mid-Rise Address: Shattuck Ave & Center St, Downtown Berkeley APN: Not provided Location: 37.8695, -122.2685 Dwelling Units: 85 Stories: 3 ALGORITHM ---------------------------------------- Universal 5-Step Evacuation Capacity Algorithm v3.2 (dT Standard - constant mobilization) Each scenario applies: (1) applicability check, (2) scale gate, (3) route identification (EvacuationPath objects with bottleneck tracking), (4) demand calculation (mobilization rate 0.90 x vpu x units - NFPA 101 design basis), (5) dT test (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity x 60 + egress). FHSZ affects road capacity degradation only - not mobilization. Most restrictive tier across all applicable scenarios is the final determination. Reference: See legal.md for full legal basis and defense reference. ====================================================================== SCENARIO: WILDLAND_AB747 Legal Basis: AB 747 (California Government Code Sec.65302.15) - General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition) - effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code) - 0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.) - safe egress windows by hazard zone Result: DISCRETIONARY | Triggered: YES ====================================================================== STEP 1 - APPLICABILITY CHECK (Standard 3: FHSZ Modifier) -------------------------------------- Method: Always applicable; site FHSZ check via GIS point-in-polygon Result: APPLICABLE Note: Not in FHSZ (hazard_zone=non_fhsz) - no road degradation. Mobilization rate 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis, constant). Standard 3 (FHSZ): Not in FHSZ [HAZ_CLASS=0] hazard_zone=non_fhsz (not in FHSZ) Note: Point not within any FHSZ polygon; nearest polygon 1837 m away (>50 m threshold). Mobilization Rate: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis - constant; Census ACS B25044 zero-vehicle adjustment) STEP 2 - SCALE GATE (Standard 1) -------------------------------------- 85 >= 15 -> TRIGGERED (85 units vs. 15 threshold) STEP 3 - ROUTE IDENTIFICATION (Standard 2) -------------------------------------- Method: Project-origin Dijkstra (v3.4, travel-time weight) - fastest path from project site to each regional-network exit node (motorway/trunk/primary at city boundary); weight=length/speed_limit (seconds) per speed_defaults config; 112 nodes within 0.5 mi network zone; respects road barriers (I-5, rail, etc.) Radius: 0.5 miles (804.7 m) Serving route segments found: 66 Serving EvacuationPaths identified: 8 - Eastshore Freeway: eff_cap=11250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.500 (informational) - 6321559: eff_cap=2250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.500 (informational) - 9577895: eff_cap=2250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=1.005 (informational) - 510151009: eff_cap=2250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=1.005 (informational) - 6322298: eff_cap=2250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.500 (informational) - University Avenue: eff_cap=5700 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.400 (informational) - Ashby Avenue: eff_cap=7600 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=4.072 (informational) - San Pablo Avenue: eff_cap=3800 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.369 (informational) - Shattuck Avenue: eff_cap=3800 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.465 (informational) - Adeline Street: eff_cap=3800 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=0.946 (informational) - 6320410: eff_cap=2250 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=5.774 (informational) STEP 4 - DEMAND CALCULATION -------------------------------------- Formula: 85 x 2.5 x 0.90 Hazard Zone: non_fhsz Mobilization Rate: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis, constant) Project vehicles (peak hour): 191.2 vph Source (vehicles/unit): U.S. Census ACS B25044 Source (mobilization): NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code) design basis - 100% occupant evacuation; adjusted 0.90 for ~10% zero-vehicle households (Census ACS B25044). STEP 5 - dT TEST (Standard 4) -------------------------------------- Method: dT = (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity) x 60 + egress Hazard Zone: non_fhsz Mobilization Rate: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis, constant) Project Vehicles: 191.2 vph Egress Penalty: 0.0 min (NFPA 101/IBC; applies to buildings >= 4 stories) Safe Egress Window: 120 min (non_fhsz, NIST TN 2135) Max Project Share: 5% dT Threshold: 6.00 min (120 min window x 5%, NIST TN 2135) Paths Evaluated: 8 Max dT: 6.04 min Triggered: YES - DISCRETIONARY Per-Path Results (all evaluated paths - no deduplication): Path proj_259581502_243670952 | origin BG: project_origin | 28 segments Bottleneck: University Avenue [within threshold] Road: Multi-lane highway | Speed: 25 mph | Lanes: 2 | HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz) HCM cap: 3800 vph x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz) = eff cap 3800 vph dT = (191.2 vph / 3800 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 3.02 min (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%)) Path proj_259581502_2644106915 | origin BG: project_origin | 36 segments Bottleneck: Adeline Street *** dT EXCEEDS THRESHOLD - DISCRETIONARY *** Road: Multi-lane highway | Speed: 25 mph | Lanes: 1 | HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz) HCM cap: 1900 vph x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz) = eff cap 1900 vph dT = (191.2 vph / 1900 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 6.04 min (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%)) Path proj_259581502_2644106917 | origin BG: project_origin | 35 segments Bottleneck: Adeline Street *** dT EXCEEDS THRESHOLD - DISCRETIONARY *** Road: Multi-lane highway | Speed: 25 mph | Lanes: 1 | HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz) HCM cap: 1900 vph x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz) = eff cap 1900 vph dT = (191.2 vph / 1900 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 6.04 min (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%)) Path proj_259581502_52982359 | origin BG: project_origin | 31 segments Bottleneck: 6321559 [within threshold] Road: Freeway | Speed: 45 mph | Lanes: 1 | HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz) HCM cap: 2250 vph x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz) = eff cap 2250 vph dT = (191.2 vph / 2250 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 5.10 min (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%)) Path proj_259581502_52982363 | origin BG: project_origin | 30 segments Bottleneck: 6321559 [within threshold] Road: Freeway | Speed: 45 mph | Lanes: 1 | HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz) HCM cap: 2250 vph x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz) = eff cap 2250 vph dT = (191.2 vph / 2250 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 5.10 min (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%)) Path proj_259581502_53013480 | origin BG: project_origin | 29 segments Bottleneck: 6321559 [within threshold] Road: Freeway | Speed: 45 mph | Lanes: 1 | HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz) HCM cap: 2250 vph x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz) = eff cap 2250 vph dT = (191.2 vph / 2250 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 5.10 min (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%)) Path proj_259581502_52995575 | origin BG: project_origin | 29 segments Bottleneck: 9577895 [within threshold] Road: Freeway | Speed: 45 mph | Lanes: 1 | HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz) HCM cap: 2250 vph x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz) = eff cap 2250 vph dT = (191.2 vph / 2250 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 5.10 min (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%)) Path proj_259581502_1541561262 | origin BG: project_origin | 27 segments Bottleneck: 6320410 [within threshold] Road: Freeway | Speed: 45 mph | Lanes: 1 | HAZ_CLASS: 0 (non_fhsz) HCM cap: 2250 vph x degradation 1.00 (non_fhsz) = eff cap 2250 vph dT = (191.2 vph / 2250 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 5.10 min (threshold: 6.00 min (120 min x 5%)) -> Scenario Tier: DISCRETIONARY Reason: Project meets the 15-unit applicability threshold and 2 serving path(s) exceed the dT threshold of 6.00 min (max dT: 6.0 min). Not in FHSZ (hazard_zone=non_fhsz) - no road degradation. Mobilization: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis, constant). Discretionary review required. Legal basis: AB 747 (California Government Code Sec.65302.15) - General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition) - effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code) - 0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.) - safe egress windows by hazard zone. ====================================================================== SCENARIO: SB79_TRANSIT Legal Basis: SB 79 (2025) - objective health and safety standard carve-out for by-right projects (transit proximity context); California Public Utilities Code Sec.21155 (Tier 1/2 transit) Result: NOT_APPLICABLE | Triggered: NO ====================================================================== NOT APPLICABLE: SB 79: project is not within 0.5 miles of Tier 1/2 transit. Informational only - no tier impact. SB 79 Transit Proximity: outside transit buffer ====================================================================== FINAL DETERMINATION ====================================================================== RESULT: DISCRETIONARY REVIEW REQUIRED Project meets the 15-unit applicability threshold and 2 serving path(s) exceed the dT threshold of 6.00 min (max dT: 6.0 min). Not in FHSZ (hazard_zone=non_fhsz) - no road degradation. Mobilization: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis, constant). Discretionary review required. Legal basis: AB 747 (California Government Code Sec.65302.15) - General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition) - effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code) - 0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.) - safe egress windows by hazard zone. PARAMETERS APPLIED -------------------------------------- Hazard Zone: non_fhsz Mobilization Rate: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis - constant; ~10% zero-vehicle HHs per Census ACS B25044) Vehicles per Unit: 2.5 (U.S. Census ACS B25044) Egress Penalty: 0.0 min (NFPA 101/IBC - 3 stories) Safe Egress Window: 120 min (non_fhsz, per NIST TN 2135) Max Project Share: 5% dT Threshold: 6.00 min (120 x 5%) Max dT (project): 6.04 min Determination Tier: DISCRETIONARY REVIEW REQUIRED At least one scenario triggered DISCRETIONARY: the project meets the dwelling unit size threshold and at least one serving path's dT exceeds the applicable threshold for the project's hazard zone. dT = (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity) x 60 + egress_penalty The baseline state of the road is irrelevant - projects in already-failing zones are tested equally (key v3.0 correction from v2.0 marginal causation test). NOTE: Fire zone location (Standard 3) affects mobilization rate and dT threshold; it does not independently gate the determination. Scenario Tier Summary: wildland_ab747: DISCRETIONARY sb79_transit: NOT_APPLICABLE Aggregation Logic: Most restrictive tier across all applicable scenarios wins. Tier Ranking: DISCRETIONARY(3) > MINISTERIAL WITH STANDARD CONDITIONS(2) > MINISTERIAL(1) > NOT_APPLICABLE(0) This determination is based solely on objective, verifiable criteria. No professional discretion was applied. All calculations are reproducible. See legal.md for full legal basis and defense reference. ======================================================================