====================================================================== FIRE EVACUATION CAPACITY ANALYSIS - PROJECT DETERMINATION JOSH v3.4 (dT Standard - Constant Mobilization, NFPA 101) ====================================================================== Date: 2026-04-03T04:11:37.138476 Project: Hills Gateway Address: Claremont Ave & Tunnel Rd APN: Not provided Location: 37.8914, -122.2494 Dwelling Units: 80 Stories: 3 ALGORITHM ---------------------------------------- Universal 5-Step Evacuation Capacity Algorithm v3.2 (dT Standard - constant mobilization) Each scenario applies: (1) applicability check, (2) scale gate, (3) route identification (EvacuationPath objects with bottleneck tracking), (4) demand calculation (mobilization rate 0.90 x vpu x units - NFPA 101 design basis), (5) dT test (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity x 60 + egress). FHSZ affects road capacity degradation only - not mobilization. Most restrictive tier across all applicable scenarios is the final determination. Reference: See legal.md for full legal basis and defense reference. ====================================================================== SCENARIO: WILDLAND_AB747 Legal Basis: AB 747 (California Government Code Sec.65302.15) - General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition) - effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code) - 0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.) - safe egress windows by hazard zone Result: DISCRETIONARY | Triggered: YES ====================================================================== STEP 1 - APPLICABILITY CHECK (Standard 3: FHSZ Modifier) -------------------------------------- Method: Always applicable; site FHSZ check via GIS point-in-polygon Result: APPLICABLE Note: FHSZ Zone 3 (vhfhsz) - road capacity degradation applied; mobilization unaffected. Mobilization rate 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis, constant). Standard 3 (FHSZ): Zone 3 (Very High) [HAZ_CLASS=3] hazard_zone=vhfhsz (IN FIRE ZONE) Mobilization Rate: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis - constant; Census ACS B25044 zero-vehicle adjustment) STEP 2 - SCALE GATE (Standard 1) -------------------------------------- 80 >= 15 -> TRIGGERED (80 units vs. 15 threshold) STEP 3 - ROUTE IDENTIFICATION (Standard 2) -------------------------------------- Method: Project-origin Dijkstra (v3.4, travel-time weight) - fastest path from project site to each regional-network exit node (motorway/trunk/primary at city boundary); weight=length/speed_limit (seconds) per speed_defaults config; 29 nodes within 0.5 mi network zone; respects road barriers (I-5, rail, etc.) Radius: 0.5 miles (804.7 m) Serving route segments found: 111 Serving EvacuationPaths identified: 1 - Gilman Street: eff_cap=3800 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=9.461 (informational) - Hopkins Street: eff_cap=3800 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=8.916 (informational) - Grizzly Peak Boulevard: eff_cap=394 vph, fhsz=vhfhsz, deg=0.35, vc=0.250 (informational) - Marin Avenue: eff_cap=315 vph, fhsz=vhfhsz, deg=0.35, vc=5.822 (informational) - Shasta Road: eff_cap=394 vph, fhsz=vhfhsz, deg=0.35, vc=0.250 (informational) - The Circle: eff_cap=1900 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=3.363 (informational) - Monterey Avenue: eff_cap=3800 vph, fhsz=non_fhsz, deg=1.00, vc=2.312 (informational) STEP 4 - DEMAND CALCULATION -------------------------------------- Formula: 80 x 2.5 x 0.90 Hazard Zone: vhfhsz Mobilization Rate: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis, constant) Project vehicles (peak hour): 180.0 vph Source (vehicles/unit): U.S. Census ACS B25044 Source (mobilization): NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code) design basis - 100% occupant evacuation; adjusted 0.90 for ~10% zero-vehicle households (Census ACS B25044). STEP 5 - dT TEST (Standard 4) -------------------------------------- Method: dT = (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity) x 60 + egress Hazard Zone: vhfhsz Mobilization Rate: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis, constant) Project Vehicles: 180.0 vph Egress Penalty: 0.0 min (NFPA 101/IBC; applies to buildings >= 4 stories) Safe Egress Window: 45 min (vhfhsz, NIST TN 2135) Max Project Share: 5% dT Threshold: 2.25 min (45 min window x 5%, NIST TN 2135) Paths Evaluated: 1 Max dT: 27.43 min Triggered: YES - DISCRETIONARY Per-Path Results (all evaluated paths - no deduplication): Path proj_100565801_243670952 | origin BG: project_origin | 65 segments Bottleneck: Shasta Road *** dT EXCEEDS THRESHOLD - DISCRETIONARY *** Road: Two-lane highway | Speed: 25 mph | Lanes: 2 | HAZ_CLASS: 3 (vhfhsz) HCM cap: 1125 vph x degradation 0.35 (vhfhsz) = eff cap 394 vph dT = (180.0 vph / 394 vph) x 60 + 0.0 min egress = 27.43 min (threshold: 2.25 min (45 min x 5%)) -> Scenario Tier: DISCRETIONARY Reason: Project meets the 15-unit applicability threshold and 1 serving path(s) exceed the dT threshold of 2.25 min (max dT: 27.4 min). FHSZ Zone 3 (vhfhsz) - road capacity degradation applied. Mobilization: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis, constant). Discretionary review required. Legal basis: AB 747 (California Government Code Sec.65302.15) - General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition) - effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code) - 0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.) - safe egress windows by hazard zone. ====================================================================== SCENARIO: SB79_TRANSIT Legal Basis: SB 79 (2025) - objective health and safety standard carve-out for by-right projects (transit proximity context); California Public Utilities Code Sec.21155 (Tier 1/2 transit) Result: NOT_APPLICABLE | Triggered: NO ====================================================================== NOT APPLICABLE: SB 79: project is not within 0.5 miles of Tier 1/2 transit. Informational only - no tier impact. SB 79 Transit Proximity: outside transit buffer ====================================================================== FINAL DETERMINATION ====================================================================== RESULT: DISCRETIONARY REVIEW REQUIRED Project meets the 15-unit applicability threshold and 1 serving path(s) exceed the dT threshold of 2.25 min (max dT: 27.4 min). FHSZ Zone 3 (vhfhsz) - road capacity degradation applied. Mobilization: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis, constant). Discretionary review required. Legal basis: AB 747 (California Government Code Sec.65302.15) - General Plan Safety Element mandatory update for evacuation route capacity analysis; HCM 2022 (Highway Capacity Manual, 7th Edition) - effective capacity with hazard degradation; NFPA 101 (Life Safety Code) - 0.90 mobilization design basis (100% occupant evacuation, adjusted for ~10% zero-vehicle households per Census ACS B25044); NIST TN 2135 (Maranghides et al.) - safe egress windows by hazard zone. PARAMETERS APPLIED -------------------------------------- Hazard Zone: vhfhsz Mobilization Rate: 0.90 (NFPA 101 design basis - constant; ~10% zero-vehicle HHs per Census ACS B25044) Vehicles per Unit: 2.5 (U.S. Census ACS B25044) Egress Penalty: 0.0 min (NFPA 101/IBC - 3 stories) Safe Egress Window: 45 min (vhfhsz, per NIST TN 2135) Max Project Share: 5% dT Threshold: 2.25 min (45 x 5%) Max dT (project): 27.43 min Determination Tier: DISCRETIONARY REVIEW REQUIRED At least one scenario triggered DISCRETIONARY: the project meets the dwelling unit size threshold and at least one serving path's dT exceeds the applicable threshold for the project's hazard zone. dT = (project_vehicles / bottleneck_effective_capacity) x 60 + egress_penalty The baseline state of the road is irrelevant - projects in already-failing zones are tested equally (key v3.0 correction from v2.0 marginal causation test). NOTE: Fire zone location (Standard 3) affects mobilization rate and dT threshold; it does not independently gate the determination. Scenario Tier Summary: wildland_ab747: DISCRETIONARY sb79_transit: NOT_APPLICABLE Aggregation Logic: Most restrictive tier across all applicable scenarios wins. Tier Ranking: DISCRETIONARY(3) > MINISTERIAL WITH STANDARD CONDITIONS(2) > MINISTERIAL(1) > NOT_APPLICABLE(0) This determination is based solely on objective, verifiable criteria. No professional discretion was applied. All calculations are reproducible. See legal.md for full legal basis and defense reference. ======================================================================