Berkeley, CA • AB 747 / Government Code §65302.15 • v4.0 ΔT Standard
JOSH is an objective, algorithmic system that calculates whether a proposed development project materially degrades fire evacuation route capacity. It applies the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2022) ΔT method: each project’s peak-hour vehicle demand is compared against the bottleneck effective capacity on all evacuation paths within 0.5 miles. If the marginal evacuation delay (ΔT) exceeds the zone-specific threshold derived from NIST safe-egress windows, the project requires discretionary review. All determinations are fully reproducible from published sources — no professional judgment, no discretion.
Open Interactive Map →| Project | Scale | Determination | Key Factor | Documents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashby Small Infill | 10 units · 2 stories | MINISTERIAL | 10-unit project at Ashby BART — below the 15-unit size threshold. Standard 1 (size gate) is not triggered, so the project qualifies for ministerial approval reg… | Brief Audit trail |
| Downtown Mid-Rise | 120 units · 3 stories | DISCRETIONARY | 120-unit, 3-story project on Shattuck Ave. Exceeds the 15-unit threshold. Non-FHSZ → no road degradation. Behavioral mobilization 0.90 (NFPA 1660 / 1616 communi… | Brief Audit trail |
| Hills Gateway | 80 units · 3 stories | DISCRETIONARY | 80-unit project near the Berkeley Hills in FHSZ Zone 3. Mobilization rate 0.90 (NFPA 1660 / 1616 community mass-evacuation design basis, constant) → 180 project… | Brief Audit trail |
| Hills FHSZ Small Infill | 10 units · 2 stories | MINISTERIAL | 10-unit project in the Berkeley Hills FHSZ Zone 3 area — same location as Hills Gateway (Project 3, 80 units → DISCRETIONARY). Despite the fire zone and high mo… | Brief Audit trail |
| Claremont Hills Terrace | 25 units · 3 stories | CONDITIONAL | 25-unit hillside project NOT in a mapped FHSZ zone. Behavioral mobilization 0.90 (NFPA 1660 / 1616) × 1.9 vpu (ACS B25044) → 42.75 project vehicles. No road cap… | Brief Audit trail |
| Cedar Street Infill | 75 units · 6 stories | DISCRETIONARY | 75-unit, 6-story project in North Berkeley (NOT in FHSZ). Behavioral mobilization 0.90 (NFPA 1660 / 1616) × 1.9 vpu (ACS B25044) → 128.25 project vehicles. Buil… | Brief Audit trail |